Analysis of Fantastic Four (Issues 1 to 53)

Amazingly Secret Approach Using an Incredibly Novel Data Analysis Procedure for Comic Book Investing and Speculation. 

Introduction and Material and Methods

            In order to isolate potential key issues to focus my investing efforts on, I used a data analysis approach based on established values from two collecting universes within in the ASM run of the silver age issues (Fantastic Four (Issues 1 to 53). I gathered value data from a variety of sources representing both serious investors (Insiders – I) and not serious investors (Outsiders-O). This data is current as on 3/2015. I choose to keep my methodology and data gathering proprietary at this time but I am giving my readers a simplified representation of my data that I currently use for my decisions.

Results – Fantastic Four (Issues 1 to 53)

Table 1. Bias Scores (B SCORE) of All Issues in the Run

Issue	B Score		Issue	B Score
#1	216123		#28	401
#2	16246		#29	-403
#3	20014		#30	-766
#4	16799		#31	591
#5	28920		#32	-515
#6	9049		#33	-472
#7	15714		#34	-363
#8	5956		#35	-943
#9	1296		#36	1874
#10	321		#37	505
#11	6458		#38	-359
#12	14218		#39	-659
#13	9748		#40	-467
#14	-356		#41	-792
#15	-50		#42	-646
#16	916		#43	-638
#17	3421		#44	-683
#18	10005		#45	367
#19	557		#46	-616
#20	-17		#47	-798
#21	-329		#48	-287
#22	233		#49	-575
#23	2030		#50	2582
#24	-604		#51	1943
#25	1113		#52	1213
#26	433		#53	305
#27	-103

            Using the data based on that described in the introduction, I calculated the I/O bias between the two groups and adjusted the scores to account for the extreme issues. I note the very high insider bias with dark purple and high bias using light purple. Note the low plus/ low minus numbers reflect a sight bias by the unsophisticated outsider group followed by the more extreme biases. I use the Average followed by Std. Dev. as a guide into these cutoffs. (Note the term guide). These numbers only refer to this data set unless I combine multiple runs. So you can not draw conclusions between independent runs and numbers throughout this blog. The data suggests a bias does exist within the run and invites a deeper focus (see Tables 2 and 3). I think these data show promise in this run. By now it is clear that in all silver-age marvel comic-book runs I have looked at, biases exist and thus are available for exploitation by the wise investor.  The point is to use this data to make a focused approach to buying investment grade comic-books.

Table 2.  I/O SLN numbers calculated for issues Fantastic Four (Issues 1 to 53)

Issue	I SLN	O SLN		Issue	I SLN	O SLN
#1	7512.7	5692.5		#28	61.7	99.6
#2	671.5	853.9		#29	22.4	29.9
#3	701.8	498.1		#30	16.0	42.7
#4	635.2	622.6		#31	50.3	27.0
#5	1003.8	640.4		#32	17.7	26.3
#6	360.2	426.9		#33	21.0	35.6
#7	489.0	185.0		#34	24.4	35.6
#8	244.6	284.6		#35	9.1	35.6
#9	129.5	284.6		#36	88.8	35.6
#10	101.7	284.6		#37	44.6	27.0
#11	255.0	256.2		#38	24.8	35.6
#12	545.6	426.9		#39	17.1	35.6
#13	315.8	99.6		#40	21.5	35.6
#14	40.6	99.6		#41	9.4	21.3
#15	52.0	99.6		#42	13.6	21.3
#16	78.6	106.7		#43	14.4	21.3
#17	140.3	99.6		#44	13.1	21.3
#18	322.7	128.1		#45	95.7	128.1
#19	62.2	99.6		#46	49.4	106.7
#20	49.6	99.6		#47	9.1	21.3
#21	35.4	85.4		#48	56.5	113.9
#22	44.3	56.9		#49	33.1	71.2
#23	92.9	56.9		#50	113.5	85.4
#24	20.8	56.9		#51	83.4	35.6
#25	89.1	128.1		#52	114.4	128.1
#26	70.1	113.9		#53	45.2	56.9
#27	40.4	71.2

            In order to begin this deeper analysis I developed a measure called SLN. The SLN looks at the slope of the values in both the I/O databases from 9.4 to 6 conditions. Table 1 shows the SLN values between issues 39 to 99.  Note issue FF# 1 is off-scale but shows a bias to the Insiders. You are free to use these numbers to determine the percentage difference and think what that may mean. For instance FF #13 has 315.8 Insiders and 99.6 Outsider bias. So I just dip in to this water and show if you are look between FF 13 and 14 it’s a big difference in the data. Insiders are loving the FF13 twice as good as FF 14 for investment material. They are making a statement that they are very bullish on the FF 13 vs. FF 14. So I would use this as buy signal for 13 and sell signal for FF 14.

Issue	I Bias	O Bias	Total Bias	Diff	% I Bias
#13	315.8	99.6	415.4	216.2	76.0
#14	40.6	99.6	140.3	-59.0	29.0

            As I look across the data landscape, I see the this run has a lot of extremes as it’s either a strong buy or a do not buy message. I have added some more color indicators. Deep Green and Light Green are denoting the issues with definite Insider Bias and are worthy of further digging for investment choices. Note no light green issues exist. On the other hand, I denoted the issues with Outsider Bias with Deep Red and Light Rose. I would not focus on these except as noted by the Table 3 data. (I note that extreme high grades equal or above 9.4 are always going to be valued greatly by both groups just due to the rarity).

            In conclusion based on this data, I suggest the green (dark and light) issues are the investment targets to focus on the highest grades possible while the red/rose/white denoted issues are targets for much less if any focus except if Table 3 data suggests otherwise. 

Table 3. Adjusted Average Differences of I/O Data at Selected Grades

Issue	C9.4 ADF	C8 ADF	C6 ADF		Issue	C9.4 ADF	C8 ADF	C6 ADF
#1	$$	$$	XX		#28	$	X	X
#2	$$	XX	XX		#29	X	?	?
#3	$$	$	X		#30	XX	?	?
#4	$$	X	X		#31	$	$	?
#5	$$	$	$		#32	X	?	?
#6	$$	XX	X		#33	X	?	?
#7	$$	?	X		#34	X	?	?
#8	$$	XX	X		#35	XX	?	?
#9	$	X	X		#36	$	$	?
#10	X	X	X		#37	$	?	?
#11	$$	X	X		#38	X	?	?
#12	$$	$	$		#39	X	?	?
#13	$$	$	$		#40	X	?	?
#14	X	X	?		#41	XX	?	?
#15	X	?	?		#42	X	?	?
#16	$	?	$		#43	X	?	?
#17	$	X	?		#44	X	?	?
#18	$$	?	?		#45	$	$	$
#19	$	X	?		#46	X	$	$
#20	X	X	?		#47	XX	?	?
#21	X	X	?		#48	$	$	$
#22	$	X	?		#49	X	$	?
#23	$	?	?		#50	$	X	?
#24	XX	X	?		#51	$	?	?
#25	$	X	?		#52	$	$	$
#26	$	?	?		#53	$	X	?
#27	X	X	?

           

   Given the I/O differences in the data across grades, I focused on the average of those differences between the I and O data. I adjusted these averages to normalize it and allow a sharper clarity in the results. That data is presented in Table 3.

   Analysis of the Table 3 data revealed that I/O data in Tables 1 and 2 may not reflect the whole truth. It can be seen that 10 issues are highly favored across the three grade levels by the I crowd (Issues 1, 2, 3, 5, 12, 13, 31, 36, 45, 48, and 52). In contrast, 20 issues (Dark Green) show only the I/O bias by the insider investors mainly in the Grade of 9.4.   I also have denoted via gray color on the issues that certainly need to be watched. (none in this run) Finally the other issues are all pretty much biased by the outsiders over the insiders’ opinions and buying habits.

   Based on this data, I would conclude one might focus on the 10 green denoted issues in the lesser cheaper grades while the dark green issues would those you should focus on only in highest grades or not at all. The grey ones if any are on the watch list. Other issues are not recommended for a focus effort at this time. Note this table may be of greater usage and certainly suggests a different approach as did the data in Table 2.