Analysis of Fantastic Four Part 2 Issues 54 to 149.

Amazingly Secret Approach Using an Incredibly Novel Data Analysis Procedure for Comic Book Investing and Speculation. 

Introduction and Material and Methods

      In order to isolate potential key issues to focus my investing efforts on, I used a data analysis approach based on established values from two collecting universes within in the ASM run of the silver age issues (Fantastic Four Issues 54 to 149). I gathered value data from a variety of sources representing both serious investors (Insiders – I) and not serious investors (Outsiders-O). This data is current as on 3/2015. I choose to keep my methodology and data gathering proprietary at this time but I am giving my readers a simplified representation of my data that I currently use for my decisions.

Results – Fantastic Four (Issues 54 to 149)

Table 1. Bias Scores (B SCORE) of All Issues in the Run

Issue	B Score		Issue	B Score
#54	289		#102	-60.6
#55	850		#103	10.4
#56	48.8		#104	-68.6
#57	376.2		#105	-105.6
#58	-66.8		#106	-58.6
#59	-1.8		#107	-11.6
#60	-33.8		#108	-44.6
#61	37.8		#109	-87.6
#62	39.8		#110	-44
#63	85.8		#111	27.4
#64	2.8		#112	262.8
#65	209.8		#113	-12
#66	-63.6		#114	-15
#67	267.1		#115	-21
#68	48.8		#116	-9
#69	25.8		#117	-81
#70	24.8		#118	-60
#71	1.8		#119	0
#72	319		#120	-51
#73	91.2		#121	-52.2
#74	109		#122	-23.2
#75	94		#123	13.8
#76	-70		#124	-19
#77	-90		#125	-69
#78	-27.4		#126	16
#79	-58.4		#127	-42
#80	-32.4		#128	34
#81	-24		#129	-7
#82	-48		#130	-50
#83	-24		#131	-56
#84	-30		#132	-44
#85	-45		#133	-38
#86	-59		#134	-72
#87	-14		#135	-54
#88	-56		#136	-61
#89	-80.6		#137	-64
#90	-15.6		#138	-28
#91	-47.6		#139	-12
#92	-25.6		#140	-42
#93	-35.6		#141	-36
#94	-34.4		#142	-75
#95	-81.4		#143	-70
#96	-34.4		#144	-67
#97	-56.4		#145	-31
#98	-63.4		#146	-81
#99	-44.4		#147	-70
#100	-29.6		#148	-17
#101	-18.4		#149	-70

      Using the data based on that described in the introduction, I calculated the I/O bias between the two groups and adjusted the scores to account for the extreme issues. I note the very high insider bias with dark purple and high bias using light purple. Note the low plus/ low minus numbers reflect a sight bias by the unsophisticated outsider group followed by the more extreme biases. I use the Average followed by Std. Dev. as a guide into these cutoffs. (Note the term guide). These numbers only refer to this data set unless I combine multiple runs. So you can not draw conclusions between independent runs and numbers throughout this blog. The data suggests a bias does exist within the run and invites a deeper focus (see Tables 2 and 3). I think these data show promise in this run. By now it is clear that in all silver-age marvel comic-book runs I have looked at, biases exist and thus are available for exploitation by the wise investor.  The point is to use this data to make a focused approach to buying investment grade comic-books. So we note the negative zone (haha) in the issues 76 to 101 and 129 onward to 149. Only one strong buy signal from 76 to 149 and that is FF 112 with some weak action in 103, 111, 123, 126, and128. Before that its clear there are some good issues to focus on (54 to 57, 61 to 75 with some throws out issues)

Table 2.  I/O SLN numbers calculated for issues Fantastic Four (Issues 54 to 149)

Issue	I SLN	O SLN		Issue	I SLN	O SLN
#54	360.0	112.0		#102	43.3	43.7
#55	836.7	280.0		#103	92.0	43.7
#56	203.3	145.6		#104	43.3	43.7
#57	439.3	134.4		#105	16.7	43.7
#58	101.3	134.4		#106	44.0	43.7
#59	164.7	134.4		#107	64.0	43.7
#60	132.7	134.4		#108	48.0	43.7
#61	142.7	89.6		#109	34.0	43.7
#62	155.3	89.6		#110	56.7	54.7
#63	179.3	89.6		#111	93.3	43.7
#64	146.7	89.6		#112	416.7	196.8
#65	362.7	89.6		#113	60.7	27.3
#66	264.0	156.8		#114	57.3	27.3
#67	627.3	249.2		#115	54.7	27.3
#68	146.7	89.6		#116	75.3	54.7
#69	130.7	89.6		#117	15.3	27.3
#70	140.0	89.6		#118	34.0	27.3
#71	120.7	89.6		#119	76.0	27.3
#72	393.3	112.0		#120	48.0	27.3
#73	209.3	134.4		#121	42.7	32.8
#74	206.7	112.0		#122	67.3	32.8
#75	206.7	112.0		#123	77.3	32.8
#76	82.7	112.0		#124	56.0	27.3
#77	115.3	112.0		#125	36.0	27.3
#78	83.3	67.2		#126	83.3	27.3
#79	96.0	67.2		#127	47.3	27.3
#80	95.3	67.2		#128	91.3	27.3
#81	86.7	56.0		#129	70.7	27.3
#82	80.7	56.0		#130	35.3	27.3
#83	90.0	56.0		#131	31.3	27.3
#84	82.7	56.0		#132	41.3	27.3
#85	72.7	56.0		#133	43.3	27.3
#86	67.3	56.0		#134	23.3	27.3
#87	86.7	56.0		#135	32.7	27.3
#88	60.0	56.0		#136	24.7	27.3
#89	36.7	44.8		#137	26.0	27.3
#90	70.0	44.8		#138	50.0	27.3
#91	62.7	44.8		#139	60.7	27.3
#92	73.3	44.8		#140	37.3	27.3
#93	63.3	44.8		#141	44.7	27.3
#94	66.7	38.3		#142	18.7	27.3
#95	33.3	38.3		#143	27.3	27.3
#96	63.3	38.3		#144	24.0	27.3
#97	55.3	38.3		#145	44.7	27.3
#98	37.3	38.3		#146	17.3	27.3
#99	63.3	38.3		#147	22.0	27.3
#100	96.7	98.4		#148	57.3	27.3
#101	67.3	38.3		#149	18.7	27.3

      In order to begin this deeper analysis I developed a measure called SLN. The SLN looks at the slope of the values in both the I/O databases from 9.4 to 6 conditions. Table 1 shows the SLN values between issues 54 to 149.  You are free to use these numbers to determine the percentage difference and think what that may mean. See the discussion on FF 13 vs 14 as to further depth you can use this data for! (Last Post)

      As I look across the data landscape, I see this run has a lot of extremes as it’s either a strong buy or a do not buy message. I have added some more color indicators. Deep Green and Light Green are denoting the issues with definite Insider Bias and are worthy of further digging for investment choices. Note no light green issues exist. On the other hand, I denoted the issues with Outsider Bias with Deep Red and Light Rose. I would not focus on these except as noted by the Table 3 data. (I note that extreme high grades equal or above 9.4 are always going to be valued greatly by both groups just due to the rarity).

      In conclusion based on this data, I suggest the green (dark and light) issues are the investment targets to focus on the highest grades possible while the red/rose/white denoted issues are targets for much less if any focus except if Table 3 data suggests otherwise.  Note the Bias data in table 1 does not always agree with the SLN and I always look into Table 3 to finalize my investing.  Given this is Era of data driven decisions making, this Blog is providing data for those decisions.

Table 3. Adjusted Average Differences of I/O Data at Selected Grades

Issue	C9.4 ADF	C8 ADF	C6 ADF		Issue	C9.4 ADF	C8 ADF	C6 ADF
#54	$$	$	?		#102	XX	?	?
#55	$$	XX	X		#103	?	?	?
#56	?	X	X		#104	XX	?	?
#57	$$	?	?		#105	XX	?	?
#58	XX	X	?		#106	XX	?	?
#59	?	X	?		#107	X	X	?
#60	XX	X	?		#108	XX	X	?
#61	?	X	?		#109	XX	?	?
#62	$	?	?		#110	XX	X	?
#63	$	X	$		#111	?	X	?
#64	$	?	?		#112	$$	?	X
#65	$$	$$	$$		#113	X	?	?
#66	$$	$$	$		#114	X	?	?
#67	$$	$$	$$		#115	X	?	?
#68	$	X	?		#116	X	X	X
#69	?	X	?		#117	XX	?	?
#70	$	X	?		#118	XX	?	?
#71	X	X	?		#119	?	?	?
#72	$$	$	?		#120	X	?	?
#73	$	X	X		#121	XX	?	?
#74	$	X	X		#122	X	?	?
#75	$	X	?		#123	?	X	?
#76	XX	X	?		#124	X	?	?
#77	XX	$	X		#125	XX	?	?
#78	X	X	?		#126	?	?	?
#79	X	$	?		#127	X	?	?
#80	X	?	?		#128	$	?	?
#81	X	?	?		#129	?	?	?
#82	X	$	?		#130	XX	?	?
#83	?	?	?		#131	XX	?	?
#84	X	?	?		#132	X	?	?
#85	X	?	?		#133	X	?	?
#86	XX	?	?		#134	XX	?	?
#87	X	?	?		#135	XX	?	?
#88	XX	?	?		#136	XX	?	?
#89	XX	?	?		#137	XX	?	?
#90	X	?	?		#138	X	?	?
#91	X	?	?		#139	X	?	?
#92	X	?	?		#140	XX	?	?
#93	X	?	?		#141	X	?	?
#94	?	?	?		#142	XX	?	?
#95	XX	?	?		#143	XX	?	?
#96	X	?	?		#144	XX	?	?
#97	X	?	?		#145	X	?	?
#98	XX	?	?		#146	XX	?	?
#99	X	?	?		#147	XX	?	?
#100	XX	X	X		#148	X	?	?
#101	X	?	?		#149	XX	?	?

                 

         Given the I/O differences in the data across grades, I focused on the average of those differences between the I and O data. I adjusted these averages to normalize it and allow a sharper clarity in the results. That data is presented in Table 3.

         Analysis of the Table 3 data revealed that I/O data in Tables 1 and 2 may not reflect the whole truth. It can be seen that 5 issues are highly favored across the three grade levels by the I crowd (Issues 54, 65, 66, 67 and 72). In contrast, 12 issues (Dark Green) show only the I/O bias by the insider investors mainly in the Grade of 9.4.   I also have denoted via gray color on the issues that certainly need to be watched.  For instance let’s look at FF 111. The B Score says it’s a Weak Buy, The SLN number Says is a Weak Buy so being grey in this data group can be forgiven and I would assign it a weak buy signal.  I am only giving a taste of the possible ways to look at those data. You have to decide your path! My own focus is deeper but what do you expect for free! Finally the other issues are all pretty much biased by the outsiders over the insiders’ opinions and buying habits.

         Based on this data, I would conclude one might focus on the 5 green denoted issues in the lesser cheaper grades while the dark green issues would those you should focus on only in highest grades or not at all. The grey ones if any are on the watch list. Other issues are not recommended for a focus effort at this time. Note this table may be of greater usage and certainly suggests a different approach as did the data in Table 2.