Analysis of X-men Part 2 Issues 41 to 143

Introduction and Material and Methods

      In order to isolate potential key issues to focus my investing efforts on, I used a data analysis approach based on established values from two collecting universes within in the  run of the silver age issues I gathered value data from a variety of sources representing both serious investors (Insiders – I) and not serious investors (Outsiders-O). This data is current as on 4/2015. I choose to keep my methodology and data gathering proprietary at this time but I am giving my readers a simplified representation of my data that I currently use for my decisions.

Results – Issues X-men 41 to 143

Table 1. Bias Scores (B SCORE) of All Issues in the Run

Issue	B Score		Issue	B Score
#41	118.4		#93	6.8
#42	91.4		#94	616
#42	72.4		#95	79.8
#42	71.4		#96	2
#45	-93.6		#97	-31
#46	49.4		#98	13
#46	84.4		#99	-35
#46	5.4		#100	-141
#49	122		#101	-71.4
#50	-31		#102	-38.2
#51	99		#103	-9.2
#52	9.6		#104	-60.2
#53	-19.6		#105	-33.2
#54	104.2		#106	-73.2
#55	-1.8		#107	-51.2
#56	31.8		#108	-50.4
#57	47.2		#109	-16.2
#58	134		#110	-132
#59	145.8		#111	-55
#60	63.8		#112	-13
#61	23		#113	1
#62	53.8		#114	-24
#63	37.8		#115	-34
#64	28.8		#116	-39
#65	17.8		#117	-44
#66	55.8		#118	-31
#67	17.8		#119	-34
#68	101.8		#120	-57.6
#69	-47.2		#121	-15
#70	118.8		#122	-52.6
#71	13.8		#123	-51.6
#72	116.8		#124	-12.6
#73	307.8		#125	-19.6
#74	23.8		#126	-17.6
#75	9.8		#127	-44.6
#76	507.8		#128	-46.6
#77	51.8		#129	-52.6
#78	-47.2		#130	-46
#79	346.8		#131	-42.6
#80	42.8		#132	-50.6
#81	57.8		#133	-35
#82	171.8		#134	-32.6
#83	60.8		#135	-59.6
#84	-18.2		#136	-66.6
#85	29.8		#137	-52
#86	-67.2		#138	-28.2
#87	106.8		#139	-50.6
#88	-21.2		#140	-53.6
#89	26.8		#141	-45.4
#90	34.8		#142	-63.4
#91	-7.2		#143	-72
#92	-18.2

      Using the data based on that described in the introduction, I calculated the I/O bias between the two groups and adjusted the scores to account for the extreme issues. I note the very high insider bias with dark purple and high bias using light purple. Note the low plus/ low minus numbers reflect a sight bias by the unsophisticated outsider group followed by the more extreme biases. I use the Average followed by Std. Dev. as a guide into these cutoffs. (Note the term guide). These numbers only refer to this data set unless I combine multiple runs. So you can not draw conclusions between independent runs and numbers throughout this blog. The data suggests a bias does exist within the run and invites a deeper focus (see Tables 2 and 3). I think these data show promise in this run. However, the biggest message is after 94/95 forget about it. Let the outsider swim in those waters. This pattern is very dramatic in Bias differences as compared to ASM for example. Even the FF runs had more promise late in the run. See the previous posts.

Table 2.  I/O SLN numbers calculated for issues

Issue	I SLN	O SLN		Issue	I SLN	O SLN
#41	222.7	114.1		#93	86.7	87.5
#42	206.0	114.1		#94	1090.0	820.0
#43	183.3	114.1		#95	194.7	196.8
#44	172.0	114.1		#96	120.0	164.0
#45	105.3	114.1		#97	114.0	136.7
#46	177.3	114.1		#98	133.3	136.7
#47	195.3	114.1		#99	93.3	136.7
#48	135.3	114.1		#100	107.3	164.0
#49	270.0	168.0		#101	176.0	174.9
#50	149.3	125.3		#102	80.0	87.5
#51	213.3	125.3		#103	76.0	87.5
#52	158.7	123.2		#104	62.0	87.5
#53	146.7	156.8		#105	60.0	87.5
#54	198.7	134.4		#106	40.0	87.5
#55	137.3	134.4		#107	54.7	87.5
#56	171.3	145.6		#108	70.7	92.9
#57	176.7	134.4		#109	78.0	87.5
#58	280.0	196.0		#110	-6.0	54.7
#59	228.0	145.6		#111	40.0	54.7
#60	196.7	145.6		#112	57.3	54.7
#61	156.7	140.0		#113	65.3	54.7
#62	193.3	145.6		#114	63.3	54.7
#63	162.7	145.6		#115	50.0	54.7
#64	143.3	142.1		#116	46.7	54.7
#65	115.3	142.1		#117	40.0	54.7
#66	190.0	142.1		#118	45.3	54.7
#67	117.3	87.5		#119	40.0	54.7
#68	153.3	87.5		#120	65.3	98.4
#69	80.7	87.5		#121	86.7	82.0
#70	171.3	87.5		#122	30.0	43.7
#71	94.7	87.5		#123	31.3	43.7
#72	166.7	87.5		#124	53.3	43.7
#73	290.7	87.5		#125	48.7	43.7
#74	105.3	87.5		#126	50.0	43.7
#75	103.3	87.5		#127	35.3	43.7
#76	444.0	87.5		#128	30.7	43.7
#77	120.0	87.5		#129	88.0	98.4
#78	83.3	87.5		#130	48.7	54.7
#79	340.0	87.5		#131	33.3	43.7
#80	114.0	87.5		#132	26.7	43.7
#81	126.0	87.5		#133	49.3	54.7
#82	190.0	87.5		#134	36.7	43.7
#83	122.7	87.5		#135	36.7	43.7
#84	70.0	87.5		#136	23.3	43.7
#85	110.7	87.5		#137	41.3	54.7
#86	60.7	87.5		#138	33.3	32.8
#87	153.3	87.5		#139	34.7	43.7
#88	82.0	87.5		#140	29.3	43.7
#89	110.0	87.5		#141	63.3	65.6
#90	116.7	87.5		#142	42.0	65.6
#91	77.3	87.5		#143	18.0	27.3
#92	70.0	87.5

      In order to begin this deeper analysis I developed a measure called SLN. The SLN looks at the slope of the values in both the I/O databases from 9.4 to 6 conditions. Table 1 shows the SLN values of ASM between issues 81 to 149.  

      I have added some more color indicators. Deep Green and Light Green are denoting the issues with definite Insider Bias and are worthy of further digging for investment choices. On the other hand, I denoted the issues with Outsider Bias with Deep Red and Light Rose. I would not focus on these except as noted by the Table 3 data. (I note that extreme high grades equal or above 9.4 are always going to be valued greatly by both groups just due to the rarity.

      As I look across the data landscape, I see a lot of negative issues to not focus your investments. The big message from the B Score graph continues here. A complete drop off in Buy signals after Issue 94). 

      In conclusion based on this data, I suggest sell late issues and buy the earlier ones. I suggest the green (dark and light) issues are the investment targets to focus on the highest grades possible while the red/rose/white denoted issues are targets for much less if any focus except if Table 3 data suggests otherwise. 

Table 3. Adjusted Average Differences of I/O Data at Selected Grades

Issue	C9.4 ADF	C8 ADF	C6 ADF		Issue	C9.4 ADF	C8 ADF	C6 ADF
#41	$$	?	?		#93	X	X	?
#42	$$	?	?		#94	$$	XX	X
#43	$	?	?		#95	X	XX	X
#44	$	X	?		#96	XX	XX	X
#45	X	$	$		#97	XX	X	X
#46	$	?	?		#98	X	X	?
#47	$	?	?		#99	XX	X	X
#48	?	?	?		#100	XX	$	?
#49	$$	?	?		#101	?	$	$
#50	$	$	$		#102	X	?	?
#51	$$	?	?		#103	X	X	X
#52	$	?	?		#104	X	?	?
#53	X	X	X		#105	XX	X	?
#54	$	X	?		#106	XX	X	?
#55	?	X	?		#107	XX	X	?
#56	?	X	X		#108	X	?	?
#57	$	X	?		#109	X	X	?
#58	$$	X	$		#110	XX	?	?
#59	$	X	?		#111	X	?	?
#60	$	X	$		#112	X	?	?
#61	?	X	?		#113	X	X	?
#62	$	?	?		#114	X	?	?
#63	?	X	?		#115	X	?	?
#64	X	X	X		#116	X	?	?
#65	XX	XX	X		#117	X	?	?
#66	$	X	?		#118	X	?	?
#67	$	?	?		#119	X	X	?
#68	$	X	?		#120	X	X	?
#69	X	?	?		#121	X	?	?
#70	$	X	?		#122	X	?	?
#71	X	X	?		#123	X	?	?
#72	$	X	?		#124	?	?	?
#73	$$	X	?		#125	X	?	?
#74	X	X	?		#126	X	?	?
#75	X	X	?		#127	X	?	?
#76	$$	?	?		#128	X	?	?
#77	?	X	?		#129	X	?	?
#78	X	?	?		#130	X	?	?
#79	$$	?	?		#131	X	?	?
#80	?	X	?		#132	X	?	?
#81	?	X	?		#133	X	?	?
#82	$$	X	X		#134	X	?	?
#83	?	X	?		#135	X	$	?
#84	X	X	?		#136	X	?	?
#85	?	X	?		#137	X	?	?
#86	X	?	?		#138	X	?	?
#87	$	X	?		#139	X	?	?
#88	X	X	?		#140	X	?	?
#89	?	X	X		#141	X	?	?
#90	?	X	X		#142	X	?	?
#91	X	X	?		#143	X	$	?
#92	X	X	?

                 

         Given the I/O differences in the data across grades, I focused on the average of those differences between the I and O data. I adjusted these averages to normalize it and allow a sharper clarity in the results. That data is presented in Table 3.

         Analysis of the Table 3 data revealed that I/O data in Tables 1 and 2 may not reflect the whole truth. It can be seen that 3 issues are favored across the three grade levels by the I crowd (Xmen 41, 42 and 50). In contrast, 23 issues show only the I/O bias by the insider investors mainly in the Grade of 9.4.  I also have denoted via gray color on the issues that certainly need to be watched. Finally the other issues are all pretty much biased by the outsiders over the insiders’ opinions and buying habits.

         Based on this data, I would conclude one might focus on the 3 green denoted issues in the lesser cheaper grades while the dark green issues would those you should focus on only in highest grades or not at all. The grey ones are on the watch list. Other issues are not recommended for a focus effort at this time. Note the after 94 and forget it message remains with an interesting selection of Issue 101.