Analysis of Xmen Part 1 Issues 1 to 40

Introduction and Material and Methods

      In order to isolate potential key issues to focus my investing efforts on, I used a data analysis approach based on established values from two collecting universes within in the  run of the silver age issues I gathered value data from a variety of sources representing both serious investors (Insiders – I) and not serious investors (Outsiders-O). This data is current as on 4/2015. I choose to keep my methodology and data gathering proprietary at this time but I am giving my readers a simplified representation of my data that I currently use for my decisions.

Results – Xmen Issues 1 to 40

Table 1. Bias Scores (B SCORE) of All Issues in the Run

Issue	B Score		Issue	B Score
#1	50727		#21	-380
#2	1547		#22	194
#3	1234		#23	-182
#4	1336		#24	-320
#5	611		#25	-219
#6	-142		#26	-451
#7	1506		#27	-382
#8	417		#28	-46
#9	-186		#29	-398.4
#10	24		#30	-328.4
#11	2364		#31	-370
#12	1087		#32	-449.2
#13	115		#33	-279
#14	7		#34	-348.2
#15	622		#35	-188
#16	-227.8		#36	-393
#17	476.2		#37	-253
#18	33.2		#38	-345
#19	-263.8		#39	-255
#20	-148.8		#40	-369

      Using the data based on that described in the introduction, I calculated the I/O bias between the two groups and adjusted the scores to account for the extreme issues (XMEN 1). I note the very high insider bias with dark purple and high bias using light purple. Grey issues are on the watch list. Note the low plus/ low minus numbers reflect a sight bias by the unsophisticated outsider group followed by the more extreme biases. I use the Average followed by Std. Dev. as a guide into these cutoffs. (Note the term guide). These numbers only refer to this data set unless I combine multiple runs. So you can not draw conclusions between independent runs and numbers throughout this blog. The data suggests a bias does exist within the run and invites a deeper focus (see Tables 2 and 3). I think these data show promise in this run.

Table 2.  I/O SLN numbers calculated for issues

Issue	I SLN	O SLN		Issue	I SLN	O SLN
#1	52800.7	24640.0		#21	177.3	168.0
#2	3842.0	2576.0		#22	571.3	168.0
#3	2753.3	2016.0		#23	296.0	168.0
#4	3466.7	2072.0		#24	226.7	168.0
#5	1555.3	1120.0		#25	284.7	168.0
#6	846.0	896.0		#26	149.3	168.0
#7	1965.3	896.0		#27	192.7	196.0
#8	1186.0	896.0		#28	543.3	336.0
#9	1025.3	1120.0		#29	173.3	179.2
#10	996.7	1008.0		#30	210.0	179.2
#11	2296.7	560.0		#31	182.7	140.0
#12	1728.7	728.0		#32	138.0	145.6
#13	783.3	560.0		#33	232.7	140.0
#14	965.3	728.0		#34	190.0	145.6
#15	1084.7	448.0		#35	515.3	336.0
#16	373.3	246.4		#36	180.7	140.0
#17	884.7	246.4		#37	244.0	140.0
#18	516.7	246.4		#38	196.0	140.0
#19	330.0	246.4		#39	249.3	140.0
#20	377.3	246.4		#40	198.7	140.0

      In order to begin this deeper analysis I developed a measure called SLN. The SLN looks at the slope of the values in both the I/O databases from 9.4 to 6 conditions. Table 1 shows the SLN values of Xmen between issues 1 to 40.  

      As I look across the data landscape, I see a lot of positive biased issues to focus your investments. I have added some more color indicators. Deep Green and Light Green are denoting the issues with definite Insider Bias and are worthy of further digging for investment choices. On the other hand, I denoted the issues with Outsider Bias with Deep Red and Light Rose (none). I see an interesting pattern in that most of the first 40 issues of Xmen are mostly in the green.  See Below in Table 2A. Wow what a skew! Buy signals in almost all the Xmen!

                                        Table 2A Comparison of ASM vs. Xmen 1 to 40 issues

	ASM	XMEN			ASM	XMEN
Issues 1 to 40	#	#		Issues 1 to 40	%	%
Green	13	28		Green	32.5	70
White	9	5		White	22.5	12.5
Red	18	7		Red	45	17.5
Total	40	40		Total	100	100

(I note that extreme high grades equal or above 9.4 are always going to be valued greatly by both groups just due to the rarity).

      In conclusion based on this data, I suggest the green (dark and light) issues are the investment targets to focus on the highest grades possible while the red/rose/white denoted issues are targets for much less if any focus except if Table 3 data suggests otherwise. 

Table 3. Adjusted Average Differences of I/O Data at Selected Grades

Issue	C9.4 ADF	C8 ADF	C6 ADF		Issue	C9.4 ADF	C8 ADF	C6 ADF
#1	$$	XX	XX		#21	XX	?	?
#2	$$	?	X		#22	$	?	?
#3	$	XX	X		#23	X	?	?
#4	$$	$	$		#24	X	?	?
#5	$	XX	X		#25	X	?	?
#6	XX	XX	?		#26	XX	$	?
#7	$$	X	?		#27	XX	?	?
#8	?	XX	X		#28	?	?	?
#9	XX	XX	?		#29	XX	?	?
#10	XX	XX	X		#30	XX	?	?
#11	$$	X	?		#31	X	$	?
#12	$$	?	$		#32	XX	$	?
#13	?	X	?		#33	X	?	?
#14	?	?	?		#34	X	?	?
#15	$	?	?		#35	?	$	?
#16	X	?	?		#36	XX	$	?
#17	$	$	?		#37	X	?	?
#18	$	?	?		#38	X	$	?
#19	X	?	?		#39	X	?	?
#20	X	?	?		#40	X	$	?

                 

         Given the I/O differences in the data across grades, I focused on the average of those differences between the I and O data. I adjusted these averages to normalize it and allow a sharper clarity in the results. That data is presented in Table 3.

         Analysis of the Table 3 data revealed that I/O data in Tables 1 and 2 may not reflect the whole truth, the “Buy” signal disappears as you see the data lands on the grade of 9.4 for the Insiders choice on these issues. Note only 3 issues are favored across the three grade levels by the I crowd (Xmen 4, 12 and 17). In contrast, 9 issues show only the I/O bias by the insider investors mainly in the Grade of 9.4 (1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 11, 15, 18, and 22).  I also have denoted via gray color on the issues that certainly need to be watched. Finally the other issues are all pretty much biased by the outsiders over the insiders’ opinions and buying habits.

         Based on this data, I would conclude one might focus on the 3 green denoted issues in the lesser cheaper grades while the dark green issues would those you should focus on only in highest grades or not at all. The grey ones are on the watch list. Other issues are not recommended for a focus effort at this time. Note this table may be of greater usage and certainly suggests a different approach as did the data in Table 2.      Look at ASM data in the previous post and compare the landscape it is very interesting.